Key Takeaways

• “If you want to be successful, you have to be choosy about your desires.” – Naval
• How to fix your self-esteem really fast?
  • Have a moral code and follow it rigorously
  • Doing things for others
• Viewing your own mind and thoughts objectively is one of the biggest benefits of meditation
  • Meditation creates a small gap between your conscious observation self and your mind so you can look and evaluate your thoughts (this can be through therapy, journaling, long walks, whatever)
• True intelligence is getting what you want out of life:
  • 2 parts: (1) Knowing what you want (2) Knowing how to get it
• If making a 4-year commitment, spend a year thinking it through
• Forget about the 10,000 hour rule: “If you get 10,000 error corrections at anything, you will be an expert at it.” – Naval
• The “barbell strategy”: go all-in when something works, but be willing to walk away quickly when it doesn’t
• Everyone craves thinking about something bigger than themselves
  • Best formula: God, kids, or mission (preferably all three)
• Stress = conflicting desires pulling you in different directions
• How to unravel anxiety:
  • Sit with it and try to pinpoint the cause
  • Write down possible reasons
  • Meditate, journal, talk to a therapist or friends
  • Notice when stress disappears to identify triggers
• “The easiest and best way to improve your quality of live is to observe your own mind and thoughts and be observant of yourself more objectively.” – Naval
• Trust the gut over the head: gut decides, head rationalizes later
  • Gut is refined judgment, built over time
  • Mind is good for solving external problems, bad at making hard decisions
• Best way to spend money: build businesses that make great products people actually want
  • Worst ways to spend money: “If it flies, floats, or fornicates, rent it” (classic saying about wasting money on luxury)
• He’s constantly changing his mind, but big recent shift: less extreme libertarianism
  • He used to think everyone should just do their own thing, but now he sees why culture and religion help society function
• Hard truth to swallow: “All of nature, all of society, all of capitalism, all of human endeavors are underpinned by physical violence.” – Naval

Intro

• A lot of people reach out to Naval (@naval) for podcasts and he doesn’t answer them, but this time Naval actually reached out to Chris because their conversations were already happening in his head. This insane 3+ hour episode tackles one big question: what does it really mean to win at life?
• Host: Chris Williamson (@Chriswillx)  

00:00 – Is Success Worth It?

• “Happiness is being satisfied with what you have. Success comes from dis-satisfaction. Choose.” (Naval’s tweet from 2021)
• Is success worth it then? He is not sure that statement is true anymore
• “A lot of these things are just notes to myself, highly contextual. They come in the moment, they leave in the moment.” – Naval
• 2 paths to happiness:
  • Get what you want, satisfy material needs
  • Don’t want anything in the first place (like Diogenes living in a barrel)
• Naval is not sure which is more valid
• It also depends on how you define success, if the end goal is happiness, why not cut to the chase?
• Being happier can make you more successful, but your definition of success will change
• Naval took the path of material success first. Wasn’t going to go be an ascetic (too unrealistic, too painful)
• Buddha started as a prince, saw it was all meaningless, then left to find something more
• “I’ll take the happy route that involves material success, thank you.” – Naval
• “The reason to win the game is to be free of it.”
  • Play the game, win it, then hopefully get bored of it
• You become free when you no longer try to win; either move to a different game or play for the joy of it
• Another Naval classic: “Most of the gains in life come from suffering in the short term so you can get paid in the long term.”
• But don’t become a suffering addict, don’t mistake suffering for progress
• Suffering isn’t the point, the result is
• Pain ≠ suffering
  • Pain is real, physical
  • Suffering is mental, it’s just not wanting to do the task at hand
• If you were fine doing the task, you wouldn’t suffer
• What is more effective: Suffer through it or reframe it so it’s not suffering?
• Successful people say the journey was the fun part and regret not enjoying it more
• Try this thought exercise:
  • Go back 5, 10, 15 years
  • Remember where you were, who you were with, what you wanted, what you felt
  • Any advice you’d give yourself, knowing only what you knew then?
  • For Naval, he would do it all the same, but with less anger, less emotional suffering. It was optional
• Someone doing the job peacefully (even happily) will be more effective than someone in emotional turmoil
  • Otherwise, you just get miserable successes
• “The journey isn’t just the reward, it’s the only thing there is.” – Naval
  • Success? You bank it fast, then move to the next desire
• The normal loop we go through:
  • You’re bored
  • You want something
  • You suffer while chasing it
  • You get it
  • You get used to it
  • You get bored again
• Whether you’re happy or unhappy at the end, it doesn’t last
• Not saying money/success don’t matter, they do. “Money solves money problems.”– Naval
• Study (probably fake, but interesting): People who break their backs vs. lottery winners both return to baseline happiness in 2 years
• Money can buy happiness if you earn it… gives you pride, confidence, sense of accomplishment
• The desire-fulfillment-unfulfillment cycle means you HAVE to enjoy the journey
  • 99% of life is the journey, what’s the point if you don’t enjoy it?

07:43 – Ways To Shortcut Our Desires

• Shortcutting desires: focus, decide not to want most things
• We collect unnecessary desires from everywhere
• Knowing desires = unhappiness helps you be choosy
• “If you want to be successful, you have to be choosy about your desires.” – Naval
• You can’t be great at everything, it’s a waste of time and energy
• Is fame worth it?
  • Fame gets you into better parties, restaurants…
  • But:
    • People know you, but you don’t know them
    • You’re put on a pedestal
    • No privacy
    • Attracts weirdos, lunatics
    • Forces consistency (you’re trapped in past proclamations)
    • Haters
  • But people want it, so it’s not worthless
  • It’s high status (attracts the opposite sex)
• Fame is best as a byproduct of something more meaningful
• Being famous for being famous = a trap
• Earned fame > hollow fame
• Who are the most famous people?
  • Spiritual figures (Buddha, Jesus, Muhammad)
  • Artists (art lasts)
  • Scientists discover things
  • Conquerors (Genghis Khan is famous, but Mongols saw him differently than the rest of the world did)
• The more people you impact, the more legitimate your fame
• Hollow fame = fragile. You’ll fear losing it. You’re forced to perform

10:47 – Is Changing Our Opinions Deemed As Being Hypocritical?

• Problem: Public figures get trapped by their past words
• Internet sees changing opinions as hypocrisy
• There is a difference between updating beliefs vs. being a grifter
  • Some people never truly believed what they said
• “Foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson
• All learning is error correction. You’ll be wrong a lot
• People love calling out past mistakes to boost their own status
  • If someone lies, fine, call it out. But being wrong? No big deal
• The real issue: too many people aren’t authentic
• Everyone wants something (status, approval, an image)
• We have hypersensitive BS radars now, people know when you’re faking it
• There is a big difference between being wrong and being purposefully dishonest
• If you’re lying to look good, you’ll trap yourself. You’ll be puppeted by a person you aren’t.
• The real you doesn’t get seen by the people who would care
• The only respect that matters? From the few people you respect
• Trying to get mass approval is a fool’s errand

14:35 – How To Become Less Distracted By Status Games

• Status games don’t matter as much as they used to
• Hunter-gatherer times: no wealth, only status games
  • Status meant getting the little available resources first
• Now, we have wealth creation, it’s a positive-sum game
• Wealth creation = scaling products/services, creating abundance
• Status is zero-sum (one person rises, another falls)
• Wealth is infinite; “status games are inherently limited.”
  • Status requires direct competition, wealth creation doesn’t
• Naval says that wealth games are more pleasant, positive-sum, actual material returns
  • You can’t cash in status at the bank
• It’s easier to get rich first and gain status later rather than trying to get famous and monetize it
• Why do rich people still chase status? Status-seeking is deeply ingrained in human biology
  • Wealth is more of an intellectual concept. Understanding its power requires rational thought, unlike the instinctive pull of status
• Jimmy Carr’s idea: trajectory matters more than position (rising from 200 to 101 feels better than dropping from 1 to 2)

21:02 – Ways To Raise Our Self Esteem

• “The worst outcome in this world is not having self-esteem. If you don’t love yourself, who will?” – Naval
• No one will like you more than you like yourself
• Struggling with yourself makes the outside world insurmountable
• Low self-esteem: genetic? Circumstantial? Lack of unconditional love?
• Self-esteem = your reputation with yourself
• You always know if you’re living up to your own moral code
  • Not living up to it damages self-esteem
• How to fix your self-esteem really fast?
  • Have a moral code and follow it rigorously
  • Doing things for others
• Delayed gratification is key to success: Virtues are about trading short-term pain for long-term gain
• Self-doubt isn’t always bad… it can push you to figure things out, but it shouldn’t make you question your own worth
• Growing up with unconditional love builds confidence. Not in the way that you have the answers, but that you’ll figure things out
• The “internal golden rule” by Chris: treat yourself the way you wish others had treated you
• Memory exercise: recall feeling loved and loving someone. Which is better?
  • For Naval, being in love is more exhilarating than being loved
• “You can create love anytime, the craving to receive it is the problem.” – Naval

29:46 – Why Pride Is The Most Expensive Trait

• “Pride is the enemy of learning.” – Naval
• The people who grow the least are usually the ones who are the proudest
• They think they already have the answers, so they don’t want to correct themselves publicly
• Fame locks people into their past statements, making it hard to pivot
• Pride stops people from admitting they were wrong
• It happens in all areas: trading stocks, relationships, career choices
• They get stuck in a suboptimal situation instead of resetting and climbing higher
• That’s why pride is expensive: you keep paying for it over and over
• Great artists and entrepreneurs always have the ability to start over (Paul Simon, Madonna, U2, Elon Musk)
• Elon Musk’s story: made $200M from PayPal, reinvested all of it into SpaceX, Tesla, and SolarCity, had to borrow rent money
  • He’s willing to risk everything and start fresh, no attachment to past success
  • Most people become rich, famous, or successful and then get stuck
• Creating something great requires going back to zero, which is painful but necessary

32:19 – Identifying Our Happiness

• People are too comfortable suffering silently and accepting low-quality lives
• Some believe suffering makes them better, but that’s just self-deception
• “If you’re so smart, why aren’t you happy?”
• Happiness and intelligence aren’t mutually exclusive. Plenty of smart, happy people exist
• Happiness is often just a choice and a reframing of perspective
• Being happy doesn’t mean losing ambition, it just means aligning success with what actually makes you happy
• The happy version of you will never look back and wish they were the miserable version
• People sacrifice happiness to chase success, thinking success will bring happiness
  • That’s backward thinking, you should strip away success and just go straight for happiness
  • The happier you are, the more you’ll naturally do what you love, and that will make you successful anyway
• You have to be unapologetically self-prioritizing
• Most people put themselves first, but they pretend they don’t
• People say yes to things they don’t want to do just to avoid awkwardness
• Stop wasting time doing things you don’t want to do, life is too short
• He’s gotten ruthless about prioritizing his time
  • He was inspired by Mark Andreessen’s blog: “Don’t keep a schedule”
  • Inspired by Jack Dorsey: runs business off his phone and iPad
• Doesn’t check email, has an autoresponder telling people not to contact him
• Used to own “Idontdocoffee.com” to reject meetings
• Wife never schedules him for anything…
• No alarm clock, only sets one for emergencies
• His life is pure serendipity, frees up time for what actually matters
• Freedom means never needing to be at a specific place at a specific time

44:22 – Is The Key To Success Being Our Authentic Selves?

• The most successful people escape competition by being authentic
• “Find what feels like play to you but looks like work to others.” – Naval
• When something feels effortless, you’ll outperform everyone else
• Modern society allows more freedom to change careers, location, and identity
• Success comes from productizing what you naturally do and enjoy

49:08 – Objectively Viewing Our Own Mind

• Viewing your own mind and thoughts objectively is one of the biggest benefits of meditation
  • Meditation creates a small gap between your conscious observation self and your mind so you can look and evaluate your thoughts (this can be through therapy, journaling, long walks, whatever)
• Observing thoughts objectively helps in filtering what deserves attention
• Most problems aren’t real; they are often narratives we create in our minds
  • Physical pain is real, but most problems exist only because we interpret them as problems
  • A huge amount of emotional energy is wasted on unnecessary problems
  • Ask: “Do I really want this problem? Do I need to spend energy on this?”
• People tend to create problems just to solve them, some are addicted to problem-solving
  • Even worse, people take on problems they can’t affect
  • “A rational person should cultivate indifference toward things out of their control.” – Naval
• Doom-scrolling and obsessing over global issues is a modern problem
  • Social media feeds mimetic viruses. Every problem in the world is now injected into your mind in real-time
  • Historically, people only worried about what was happening locally
• “Your family is broken, but you’re going to fix the world?” – Naval
• People should fix their own lives first
• Be “holistically selfish”: You only have one life, don’t settle for mediocrity
• True intelligence is getting what you want out of life:
  • 2 parts: (1) Knowing what you want (2) Knowing how to get it
• If making a 4-year commitment, spend a year thinking it through
• The Secretary Theorem: optimize decision-making by evaluating options for a set period, then selecting the best one moving forward
  • Applies to relationships, careers, etc.
  • Iteration is key: not just repetition, but learning and adjusting (error correction)
  • 10,000 iterations (not just hours) leads to mastery
• “If you get 10,000 error corrections at anything, you will be an expert at it.” – Naval

1:00:40 – How Can We Avoid Having Cynicism And Pessimism Within Ourselves?

• We are naturally hardwired to be pessimists, but modern society is very different
  • Regardless of what you think about modern society, it is far safer than living in the jungle just trying to survive
• Society allows for multiple attempts, there are always more jobs, relationships, and opportunities
• Upside in modern life is nonlinear
  • Example: If you short a stock, the best outcome is 2x your money, but if you invest in a winner, the upside can be 100x or more
  • Relationships, businesses, and investments all compound over time…
• “Be skeptical in the specific, but optimistic in the general.” – Naval
  • Most individual opportunities will fail, but overall, something will work out
  • Failures are just iterations, each one is a learning experience
  • If something fails, see it as a lesson rather than a loss
  • Move on quickly, cut losses early and iterate fast
• The “barbell strategy”: go all-in when something works, but be willing to walk away quickly when it doesn’t
  • People get stuck in the gray area, half-committing to things that aren’t working

1:07:20 – What Is Happiness?

• “I think happiness is just being okay with where you are.” – Naval
  • Not wanting things to be different
  • Not feeling like something is missing
  • Not needing an external change for happiness
• Most people were happiest during times of doing nothing
• Pleasure can override happiness and create an illusion
• The chase itself creates a lack, a contingency
• But if you sit around all the time, you get bored
• People want adventure, surprise, something to do
• The bliss machine thought experiment:
  • Suppose you could have an electrode in your brain that keeps you in bliss
  • People say they don’t want it, they want meaning
  • But, what if the electrode gives you meaning?
  • Eventually, you realize you want surprises, challenges, and unpredictability
• Total predictability = boring, total unpredictability = anxiety
  • The sweet spot is between those two extremes
• If thinking about yourself is a source of all unhappiness (Naval tweet), is it a necessary cost for growth?
  • The problem is obsessive self-reflection
  • Woe is me thinking feeds an insatiable beast
  • The beast = the ego, a rigid and self-obsessed thought pattern
  • Constantly reinforcing your identity, grievances, and entitlements makes you miserable
• Detachment is not a goal; it’s a byproduct of knowing what matters
• Everyone craves thinking about something bigger than themselves
  • Best formula: God, kids, or mission (preferably all three)
• Therapy is great if it helps you vent and move on
  • Bad if you keep looping on the same issues forever
• Naval’s techniques for happiness?
  • He used to have a lot of them, now tries to have none
  • Happiness techniques create struggle
  • Trying to be happy = admitting you’re unhappy
  • Positioning yourself as lacking makes things worse
  • Now he just does his thing instead of thinking about happiness
  • No formula for happiness, just like no formula for success
  • Each person’s path is unique
  • Successful people often narrate their past in ways that aren’t even fully accurate
  • “The people who are really extraordinarily successful didn’t sit around watching success porn, they just went and did it.” – Naval
• Change is more about desire and understanding than forcing yourself

1:21:24 – Learning How To Deal With Anxiety

• “Imagine how effective you would be if you weren’t anxious all the time.” – Naval (tweet)
• Anxiety is the dominant emotion of the 21st century
• Stress = conflicting desires pulling you in different directions
  • Example: Wanting to be liked vs. wanting to do something selfish, not wanting to go to work vs. needing money
  • Solution? Pick one and be okay with losing another, or decide later but at least be aware of the conflicting desires
• Anxiety builds up when we move through life too fast and don’t process reactions
• How to unravel anxiety:
  • Sit with it and try to pinpoint the cause
  • Write down possible reasons
  • Meditate, journal, talk to a therapist or friends
  • Notice when stress disappears to identify triggers
• Reflecting on problems to solve them is good
  • Reflecting on yourself to reinforce an identity is bad
  • If reflection clears your mind, it’s useful
  • If it makes your mind busier, it’s harmful
• Try ruminating on death: “You’re going to die. It all goes to zero.” – Naval
  • If everything ends, what’s there to stress about?
  • Big questions (meaning of life, why are we here) get ignored
  • But they are important
  • Thinking about mortality can be grounding
• Each moment disappears instantly. If you’re not present for it, you’ve missed it
• If your mind is somewhere else, that moment is dead to you
• Most of life is spent not actually being “here”
• People fear dying but don’t realize they spend so much time mentally absent
• Everything is wasted time in the grand scheme, but in each moment, what you’re doing is the only thing that matters
• We don’t actually want peace of mind
  • The mind itself can eat you alive
  • What we want is peace for our mind (not letting our thoughts consume us)

1:28:07 – Optimising Our Quality Of Life

• “The easiest and best way to improve your quality of live is to observe your own mind and thoughts and be observant of yourself more objectively.” – Naval
• Letting go isn’t a one-time thing, and maybe not even the right thing
• If you wanna be a Buddha, sure, let go, but in reality, super hard to do
• Better to just do what you actually want, not what others expect
  • Older, successful people say life was best when they lived on their own terms
  • Be selfish: holistic selfishness, not being a bad guy, just running life your own way
• Trust the gut over the head: gut decides, head rationalizes later
  • Gut is refined judgment, built over time
  • Mind is good for solving external problems, bad at making hard decisions
• Best way: think about it, sleep on it, wait for the gut answer to come
• “Can’t go against your gut, it’ll bite you later.” – Naval
• In relationships that fail, you usually knew it was gonna fail but ignored it
  • Wishful thinking traps people in bad situations

1:32:36 – Why We Can’t Change Other People

• “People think they can’t change themselves, but they can. People think they can change others, but they can’t.” – Naval (tweet)
• You can only change your reaction to others
• People change from trauma or their own insight, not because you told them to
• Trying to change someone in a relationship? Rarely works
• Fastest way to alienate someone is telling them to change
• Dale Carnegie’s public speaking school: people only give compliments, no criticism → builds confidence
• Michelle Thomas language learning method: listening to someone else stumble helps you learn better
• You learn better when you’re not threatened or fearful
• If you want someone to change, only way is to praise them when they do what you want
  • Not fake compliments, it has to be genuine!
• If you’re asking if you should be with someone, the answer is probably no
• In love, you’re trying to feel whole with another person
  • In art, you’re trying to make someone feel what you feel
• If a relationship feels like work, it’s probably not right
• Successful people walk away from bad situations fast, don’t accept second-best
• You get what you accept in life
• Key decision rules:
  • If you can’t decide, say no (modern society has too many options)
  • If two choices are equal, pick the more painful one in the short term (your brain overvalues avoiding pain)
  • Pick what will give you mental peace in the long run
• The big 3: Who you’re with, what you do, where you live (everything else follows from these)
• People put the least thought into where they live, but it shapes everything
  • Dating pool, job opportunities, air/water quality, family proximity… it all matters
• Genetics matter way more than people like to admit—kids reflect their parents
• “If you want a happy relationship, be with someone who’s already happy.”
• “People connect best on values.”
• Values = the hard choices in life (how to handle sick parents, money, moving)
• The fear of change is real, loss aversion makes leaving harder
  • Leaving is embarrassing, but successful people start over again and again
  • The ones who win just want it more and are willing to go back to zero if they have to

1:45:22 – Why We Shouldn’t Take Ourselves Too Seriously

• “The more seriously you take yourself, the unhappier you’re gonna be.” – Naval
• Fame makes this harder because everyone has a set idea of you, and you start believing it
  • That traps you… you can’t look foolish, can’t try new things, can’t risk failure
• Deep down, you’re still the same person you were as a kid. You’re still curious, still want the same things
• Having kids makes you realize how much closer they are to you than you think
  • Naval’s 8-year-old son already has like 60-80% of his knowledge, but way more freedom and spontaneity
• “If I take myself too seriously, then I’m going to get trapped, I’m going to circumscribe myself again into a limited set of behaviors and outcomes that keep me from being free, spontaneous and happy.” – Naval
• Most of the advice we need today is the same advice we needed 10 years ago
• Understanding > discipline
  • Jocko would disagree, but for mental things, understanding is more powerful
  • Once you see something clearly, you can’t unsee it
  • Example: You see a friend steal and you instantly stop trusting them. No effort, no discipline needed
  • When you hear about someone dying, you immediately compare yourself: “Were they my age? Were they unhealthy?”

1:59:55 – Why Did Naval Come On This Podcast?

• Chris talks about how he used to try and seem smart as a kid by memorizing stuff and repeating it
• He says his podcast is kind of a redemption arc for his past, where he wasn’t curious and was just a party guy for a decade
• He ran events while getting two degrees, including a master’s
• He still sometimes feels like he has to prove himself and struggles with shaking off that old mindset
• People mistake fluency and complexity for actual wisdom, but using jargon doesn’t mean you’re smart
• He had to turn off “Podcast Chris” in therapy because he was performing instead of being real
• Naval says he has “Podcast Guest Naval” mode too
• He realized that when he thinks of podcast conversations in his head, Chris is always the other person for some reason
• That’s why he reached out to be on this podcast, because it was already happening in his head anyway
• Naval likes conversations, not interviews, he wants a real back-and-forth (another reason why he came here)
• He has an anti-guru stance: he doesn’t want followers, he wants people to think for themselves
• People should look for parts of others they resonate with, but not idolize them
• He spends time in San Francisco because it attracts smart, creative, weird people
• “A lot of life is not giving a s***.” – Naval

2:09:31 – The Best And Worst Places To Spend Wealth

• Naval thinks the best way to spend wealth is like Elon—reinvest it in businesses that help humanity
• Nonprofits can be inefficient and wasteful, so he prefers to fund things himself
• He wants to start a school for young physicists but doesn’t talk about his philanthropy because he doesn’t want it to be performative
• He thinks Ivy League schools already have enough money and don’t spend it well
• Best way to spend money: build businesses that make great products people actually want
• Worst ways to spend money: “If it flies, floats, or fornicates, rent it” (classic saying about wasting money on luxury)
• Always pay people well and expect great work from them
• He thinks wealth should be used to take risks and build things
• Retirement is pointless. If you love what you do, you’re already retired
• Wealth = freedom to explore, take risks, and create without needing permission

2:18:03 – Philosophical Beliefs

• Paradoxes that aren’t actually paradoxes:
  • Does life have meaning? Yes, because you create meaning in the moment. But also no, because the universe doesn’t care and will eventually die.
  • The problem is, people ask at one level but answer from another. You ask as a person but answer as if you’re the whole universe
  • Same with free will… of course you have free will, because you feel like you do and make choices. But if you zoom out to the universe level, it looks deterministic. Answer at the level you asked

2:23:55 – Recent Insights Into Naval’s Opinions

• He’s constantly changing his mind, but big recent shift: less extreme libertarianism
  • He used to think everyone should just do their own thing, but now he sees why culture and religion help society function
• Libertarians suck at coordination: if everyone is doing their own thing, nothing gets done, and they get outcompeted
• “Coordination problems are why cultures exist.” – Naval
  • Religion, ethnicity, shared values… they all evolved to help people work together
• Societal breakdown happens when you destroy these systems too fast without replacing them with something better
• Example: Japan vs. Western cities: Japan still has a high-trust culture, while the West is kinda falling apart
• On parenting: He’s way more relaxed now. Used to be super strict, now realizes kids are just gonna be kids
  • Funny contrast: he’s more libertarian with his kids (let them be free) but more structured/conservative with society
• AI is cool but not actually intelligent yet:
  • It’s basically a natural language computer that can talk and predict things but doesn’t create new ideas
  • If a human had access to 0.0001% of an AI’s data, they’d come up with thousands of new ideas. AI? Nothing original (Dwarkesh Patel insight)
• Is AI a step toward AGI? Not really, it’s like a different kind of intelligence, like a jaguar’s instincts vs. a plant’s ability to grow
• Self-driving will get solved because cars operate in a controlled environment. But AI replacing programmers? Nope, programmers will just use AI to replace everyone else
• Tesla vs. Waymo?
  • Waymo works right now. More real-world testing, which matters
  • Tesla’s long-term model is better (camera-only, mass production), but hard to say who wins
  • Either way, the real losers? Car companies that don’t have self-driving

2:30:50 – Are People Choosing To Have Less Kids?

• Not convinced declining fertility is a crisis
• 20–30 years ago, everyone was freaking out about overpopulation. Now, it’s the opposite
• People always find something to be doomsday about. First, too many people; now, not enough
• Are people becoming infertile? No. It’s not like a virus is wiping out fertility. It’s a choice:
  • Women have more independence, more money, more options
  • People don’t need kids for survival anymore
  • Some people just wanna have fun
• Main concern: aging population
  • Too many retirees, not enough young workers
  • In democracies, you can’t just take away pensions, so economies get weaker
  • The usual fix? More immigration, but that changes culture, creates trust issues, and brings new problems
• Forcing people to have more kids won’t work
  • How do you even do that? Meme them into it? Pay them?
• Economics will fix this naturally
  • Fewer workers = higher wages, more automation, later retirement
  • AI, robots, and outsourcing will take over some of the burden
  • If having kids becomes more valuable, people will start having them again
• People are being lied to about kids
  • There’s this stupid idea that kids make you unhappy
  • Parents almost never regret having kids
  • “If you want an automatic built-in meaning to life, have kids.” – Naval

2:37:40 – Trusting Our Instincts Throughout Parenthood

• IYI = Intellectual yet idiot
  • Overeducated people ignoring common sens
  • Bad studies influence bad public medical directives
• Historically, kids always slept with parents; they weren’t put in separate rooms or tents
• Modern advice: “Co-sleeping is dangerous” is nonsense
• Same for cow/goat milk vs. formula debate
  • Formula (soy + corn syrup) is supposedly better than cow milk? Makes no sense
• “Your basic instincts are actually really good.” – Naval
• Teaching kids explanatory theories instead of memorization (the most Naval thing ever):
  • Example: How does knowledge get created? Guess & test
  • Instead of saying “Brush your teeth,” explain germ theory
    • Show YouTube videos of germs
• Goals for kids:
  • Feeling loved
  • Having high self-esteem
  • Not robbed of their agency
• “I would rather have animals and dogs than well-trained wolves.” – Naval
• His friend Parsa has a good saying: “I want my children to be quick to learn & hard to kill.”

2:50:26 – What Does The Future Of The Culture Wars Look Like?

• The culture war isn’t over yet. The left won earlier rounds, took over institutions, but now it’s more of a fair fight
• People like Elon are stepping in and supporting the resistance
• There’s this historical debate between great men of history vs. massive forces of history.
  • Great men: Einsteins, Teslas, Genghis Khans, Caesars shape history
  • Massive forces: Geography, demographics, societal shifts determine history, not individuals
• Leftist institutions only subscribe to the great forces theory now
• But right now, both theories are playing out in real-time
  • Trump, Elon, and others rising up as great men resisting these forces
• The battle between collectivism vs. individualism is as old as humanity
  • Humans aren’t fully individualistic but also not a beehive
  • We like strong leaders, coordination, mass movements, but also independence
  • Status games always happening
• In modern economics, this plays out as Marxism vs. Capitalism
  • Marxism: “From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.” Everyone is equal
  • Capitalism: Individualism, libertarianism, invisible hand of the market, each person does their best and trades
• Which one is correct? There’s always going to be a battle between the two
• Modern change: The individual is getting more powerful due to leverage
  • Elon Musk has the leverage of thousands of engineers, robots, billions in capital, global media reach
  • Great men of history are getting even greater
• But leverage also increases the gap between winners and losers
  • More people are winning in wealth, but more people feel like losers in status
  • People compare themselves relatively, not absolutely
  • More invisible people feeling like they get nothing out of life
• In a democracy, more losers than winners means losers vote winners down
  • Democracy has gotten too broad
  • “It’s not the right to vote that gives you power, it’s power that gives you the right to vote.” – Naval
• Originally, voting was for those with power to divide power among themselves peacefully
  • House of Lords, Commons, knights, warriors… people with money, power, and weapons
• Over time, voting rights spread to people with no land, power, or ability to enforce violence
  • Now, everyone votes. Even those with no real power
  • People vote for free stuff
  • Eventually, they start voting to oppress each other
• 51% vote to control the 49% (tyranny of the majority)
  • But not everyone can enforce their vote with power
• For example: People without guns voting to disarm people with guns
  • If armed people get coordinated and care enough, they won’t let it happen
• Societal structures are unstable when power and voting don’t align
  • Eventually, those with real power realize, “Wait a minute, you don’t get to vote anymore.”
• Hard truth to swallow: “All of nature, all of society, all of capitalism, all of human endeavors are underpinned by physical violence.” – Naval
  • Nature is brutal, “red in tooth and claw”
  • If you don’t fight, you don’t survive
• Communist revolutions always end up run by thugs
  • Without merit-based wealth distribution, power fills the gap
  • “The thugs with the guns always win in the end.” – Naval
  • Successful societies keep those in power happy through merit-based systems
• This battle never stops. It’s been going since day one and will continue forever

2:59:01 – What Is Currently Ignored By The Media But Will Be Studied By Historians?

• Modern medicine is worse than we think
  • People put way more faith in modern medicine than is warranted
  • Surgery is just cutting things out
  • Biology barely has any real explanatory theories
  • We don’t experiment enough because of regulations
  • We are still in the stone age of biology
• Drones will dominate warfare
  • “The future of all warfare is drones. There will be nothing else on the battlefield.” – Naval
  • Autonomous bullets will fight other autonomous bullets
  • No aircraft carriers, no tanks, no infantry… whoever’s drones win, wins the war
• GLP-1 drugs will change health forever
  • Most breakthrough drug since antibiotics, probably bigger than statins
  • Side effects are minor compared to benefits
  • Helps with addiction, lowers cancer, slows aging, improves insulin metabolism
  • Will completely change healthcare costs
  • Americans pay thousands, but other countries get them cheap